Thus, in our newly published study we developed an integrated framework to explore five socioeconomic scenarios of the future that vary across domestic and international natural gas demand patterns. For example, i firmly believe that natural gas must make. The role of oil and gas companies in the energy transition. Scenarios were calculated using the nexant world gas. The scenarios team has produced a joint study with the development research centre drc of chinas state council to examine how natural gas could evolve as a mainstream energy source in china. Future oil demand scenarios weforum world economic forum. Before that, coals reign as the number one global energy source had lasted around 50 years circa 1910 to 1960, taking over from traditional sources of. Effects of pricing reform and climate policy by danwei zhang submitted to the institute for data, systems, and society on january 15, 2016, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of master of science in technology and policy abstract china has a goal of reducing carbon emissions. The recent emergence of substantial new supplies of natural gas in the u. I hope this study provides readers with relevant information on possible future scenarios for the sector. As electricity demand increases, signals and controls can switch hvac operating modes to gas, relieving stress on the grid. This report should encourage iu decisionmakers to think strategically about the future and take preparatory steps sooner rather than later.
According to kpmgs prior reports, the growth and stagnation experienced by emerging countries, and the. Exploring the role of advanced nuclear in future energy markets. Future fuel scenarios and their potential impact to aviation. Oil and natural gas industry preparedness handbook 5 the oil and natural gas industry has created the following strategy document to ensure that roles, responsibilities and needs are clearly identified prior to any events that may affect the integrity of oil and natural gas systems. The natural gas generatormarket is anticipated to grow with the highest cagr during forecasts period. The future of natural gas infrastructure development in the united states.
Jan 18, 2020 the future innovation strategies of the natural gas generator market look promising with business opportunities and emerging trends in the breeding industry, chemical industry and petroleum and gas industry industries. This report assesses the spatial footprint and scenarios for future. Our 2019 future energy scenarios was published on thursday 11th july. Natural gas and electricity prices under alternative policy scenarios, mean gas resources. Introducing the fes 2020 scenarios exploring the scenarios and scenario framework for fes 2020. In the growth scenario, advancements in natural gas technology and minimal government regulation allows for the natural gas industry to flourish in the united states, cementing its place as a bridge fuel. However, in early 2016, the price of natural gas offers a cloudy future for producers. Since the 1980s, many oilproducing countries and oil companies operated from the assumption that the.
To assess the scenarios of natural gas development up to 2050, we employ a global. They consider longterm trends in economics, energy supply and demand, geopolitical shifts and social change. This study focuses on the question if those bottlenecks persist in future. To develop our four scenarios, we initially identified two key drivers of future gas utilisation out to 2050. To help think about the future of energy, we have developed two scenarios that.
Study on the future role of gas from a regulatory perspective. Pdf the scenario approach to possible futures for oil and natural. New technologies and sources of low carbon gas can decarbonise the whole energy sector. Pdf the scenario approach to possible futures for oil. The scenario approach to possible futures for oil and. The multiplicity of factors that influence the directions of the petroleum production chain is huge, making the task of preparing strategies and action plans. Case studies of future residential natural gas and. Natural gas is the ideal alternative to coal, as it is cleaner, more efficient and easier to transport and store. The paper continues with a discussion of the limitations of the most often debated alternatives to russian gas. This study contains a number of scenario studies to assess the share of russian natural gas in the european natural gas mix going forward.
At the same time, new technology that liquefies natural gas for export via ships to markets where prices are higher could boost demand and price in the future. But the future of gas depends on finding solutions to the challenges ahead. The report also offers an indepth analysis of key regional and countrylevel natural gas pipeline markets, taking into account their market size, cagr, market potential, future developments, and. In 2005, scenarios also raised the probability of a looming gap between the worlds surging demand for energy and global supplies and reinforced the significance of natural gas in the companys energy mix. Mar 21, 2018 therefore, it is likely that producers will cut back output until prices rebound. Jul, 2005 the future of natural gas wednesday, july, 2005 senate energy and natural resources committee room dirksen senate office building. The role of natural gas in the future global energy system. Pdf this study contains a number of scenario studies to assess the share of russian natural gas in the european natural gas mix going forward find, read. We have recently published the 2020 stakeholder feedback document alongside a short article that focuses on the new scenario framework and scenarios for fes 2020. Optimizing along the carbon value chain to reduce costs while protecting key capabilities 02. Global coal consumption is broadly flat, with falls in chinese and oecd consumption offset by increases in india and other asia. By 2015, growth in the production of easily accessible oil and gas will not. Increased energy demand due to social and demographic factors the world will continue to demand more and more energy in the next years. Future energy scenarios july 2018 05 gas will play a role in providing reliable, flexible energy supplies for the foreseeable future.
In this uncertain context, monitor deloitte identified a set of noregrets moves companies should make regardless of which future scenarios evolve. Delivered price the price of gas at the delivery point on a transmission pipeline to a generator or gas distribution offtake point. Technoeconomic modelling of sustainable energy future. The scenarios team has produced a joint study with the development research centre drc of chinas state council to examine how natural gas could evolve as a mainstream energy source in china natural gas is the ideal alternative to coal, as it is cleaner, more efficient and easier to transport and store. This number was chosen under the assumption that there will be greater peak electricity demand in ontario in the future, requiring more natural.
Analysis of the role of gas for a lowcarbon california future. Shaping the future of construction future scenarios and. Natural gas pipeline market players, current scenario. The world economic forums shaping the future of construction project created several scenarios of how the iu industry could look in the future based on global trends. While the study also considers socioeconomic, environmental, regulatory, and governance in connection with the development of a natural gas sectorissues, these issues are. Natural gas distribution in californias lowcarbon future. Natural gas grows robustly, supported by broadbased demand and the increasing availability of gas, aided by the continuing expansion of liquefied natural gas lng. Initial industry efforts to play a role in the energy transition show sincerity and promise. Extensive soil disturbance during construction can also increasee th risk of erosion and. Royal dutch shell started experimenting with a different way of looking into the future. On one hand, the shale revolution keeps delivering, displacing liquefied natural gas lng imports since the late 2000s, as abundant gas resources and technological innovation drove costs down. The future of gas in decarbonising european energy markets.
It is a focal point of uk energy research and a gateway between the uk and the international energy research communities. These drivers were selected on the basis that they would generate a diverse but plausible set of scenario outcomes for future gas utilisation, which captured the dimensions of particular interest to the ena gfg. The fes 2020 scenario framework has been designed to explore the most fundamental drivers of uncertainty in the future energy landscape and reflects extensive analysis and consultation with industry. Therefore, two scenarios of oies with high and low asian gas demand which influences the european lng supply are simulated in the european gas infrastructure model tiger. In each case, we explore the steps needed to enable competitiveness in a future marketplace conditioned by a co2 emissions. This study evaluates scenarios that achieve an 80 percent reduction in californias greenhouse gas ghg emissions by 2050 from 1990 levels, focusing on the implications of achieving these climate goals for gas customers and the gas distribution system. The future of gas in decarbonising european energy markets iii preface the future of gas in the energy mix is a topic of obvious interest to the natural gas programme at oies, but we believe that it is particularly relevant given that expectations about its role in europe have been confounded over the past decade. The future of natural gas resources for the future. The study is focused on the natural gas sector and the technical and economic issues related to gas use in the mozambique economy. This is especially true across large parts of asia and china where, in a relatively short time, millions of people joined the ranks. A few years later they highlighted a mix of circumstances that made sustainable biofuels appear to be an attractive business opportunity. The future of natural gas infrastructure development in. Under the commission scenarios, the share of natural gas in the energy mix is expected to decline, raising questions about what new.
Many possible uses of scenarios are outlined in the report and are recommended for. The council is not advocating or opining on the realism or likelihood of any given scenario. Natural gas generator market growth prospect and future. Gas continues to provide more energy than electricity by 2050 in three of our four scenarios. Reducing methane leakage displacing natural gas with hydrogen displacing natural gas with biomethane other deploying largescale carbon capture and storage ccs at point of combustion. The future of natural gas in north america mckinsey. Given the significant role natural gas plays in the u. New policies unlock plentiful natural gas and accelerate.
Some future scenarios of russian natural gas in europe tatiana mitrova a, d, tim boersma b, anna galkina c a energy research institute, ras, moscow, russia b energy security and climate initiative, the brookings institution, washington, dc, usa. Topic 2 assesses projections of future climate change and the resulting risks and impacts. Vision 2040 global scenarios for the oil and gas industry 5 how to read the study. Industry discussions about the future of gas in north america are polarizing.
Yet the urgent need for more oil and gas production for the foreseeable future suggests that a comprehensive framework for the oil and gas industry to support a lowcarbon future. Because of the large influence of natural gas supply on power system evolution, utilities consider future natural gas prices to be a critical uncertainty when making future resource plans. We conclude that remarkable little changes in the european natural gas mix in the scenarios under study, and that absent very drastic policy interventions russian natural gas will continue to play a prominent role in the eu. Many oil and gas companies have recognized the need to decarbonize the energy system to avoid the impacts of climate change. Note that all prices are quoted in real january 2018 terms.
Vision 2040 global scenarios for the oil and gas industry deloitte. Pdf some future scenarios of russian natural gas in europe. Scenarios for the future of technology and international. In most cases, for waste heat to be utilised, heat pumps would be required to raise the temperature of the lowgrade heat to a suitable temperature for distribution. The scenario approach to possible futures for oil and natural gas. They also help governments, academia and other businesses understand the possibilities and uncertainties ahead. Apr 16, 2020 americanewshour global natural gas generator market is expected to flourish at a cagr of 9. Previous studies on natural gas infrastructure development have largely ignored the broader economy.
Present, and future, was published in the fall 2002 issue of oklahoma geology notes. Conservation impacts of natural gas pipelines natural gas pipelines can impact the environment in several ways. This paper assesses the future of natural gas, the likelihood of energy security problems related to gas. Scenarios for the future of technology and international development, a new report, features four very different yet very plausible visions of how technology could profoundly alter how we address some of the most pressing challenges in the developing world. Natural gas distribution in californias lowcarbon future is the interim report for the future of natural gas project pier16011 conducted by energy and environmental economics and the university of california, irvine. Future energy scenarios in five minutes national grid plc. Future methane emissions from the heavyduty natural gas. The future of natural gas infrastructure in the us csse. Some future scenarios of russian natural gas in europe columbia. The uk gas industry has a 200 year history which has seen a switch to natural gas, the development of national and gas transmission and distribution networks, industry privatisation, and international gas markets enabling gas to be supplied from around the world. The information from this project contributes to the energy research and development divisions natural gas research. Jun 11, 2018 natural gas is poised to become an even more predominant fuel in the 21st century because the global economy is expanding and energy is a key driver in this economic success story.
Some future scenarios of russian natural gas in europe. Gas will play a role in providing reliable, flexible energy. Analysis of the role of gas for a lowcarbon california future 2018 navigant consulting, inc. Gas demand scenarios to account for future uncertainties, existing natural gas demand scenarios high, average and low have been selected in order to define the range of possible evolutions of natural gas demand in a 2040 perspective for the eu28.
Alternative futures iea new policies scenario according to the central new policies scenario of the international energy agency iea, the need for oil and gas. The future role of natural gas in the uk 1 about ukerc the uk energy research centre ukerc carries out worldclass, interdisciplinary research into sustainable future energy systems. Factors that determine future climate change, including scenarios for future greenhouse gas ghg emissions, are outlined in section 2. Ena gas futures group asked kpmg and kiwa gastec to prepare a report on future alternative 2050 scenarios for energy decarbonisation with a particular focus. The future of natural gas is the fourth in a series of mit multidisciplinary reports examining the role of various energy sources that may be important for meeting future demand under carbon dioxide emissions constraints. Aftermarket natural gas generator market projected to.
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